Home > Avid Law Center > Housing Recovery Back to Normal by Late 2015

Housing Recovery Back to Normal by Late 2015

New data from the real estate website Trulia suggests that the housing market is at about 33 percent or one-third of the way back to “normal”.

In a recent guest blog post on Forbes.com, Trulia examined three key monthly indicators of housing recovery: new construction starts (Census), existing-home sales (NAR), and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS). In their analysis, they checked the lowest numbers, then stacked them against the numbers before the bubble to get an idea of “normal”.

As reported on Forbes.com, here’s what they came up with for February:

  • Construction starts: 22% of the way back from their low in Apr 2009 toward their normal level.
  • Existing home sales: 47% of the way back from their low in Nov 2008 toward normal.
  • Delinquency + foreclosure rate: 32% of the way back from their high in Jan 2010 toward normal.

“To get to a single number that’s easy to remember and track over time, we just average these three percentages together. If all three indicators were at their worst, the barometer would be at 0%; if all were back to normal, the barometer would be at 100%.”

Based on their numbers, Trulia predicts that we’ll be back to “normal” by late 2015.

Check out the post and accompanying infographic.

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